Solar Operations Landscape

Over the past decade, utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) generation has grown strongly to become a core component of global power systems. The sector has benefitted from declining capital costs, supportive policy frameworks, and strong investor appetite for long-duration contracted assets. However, as the amount of data related to the existing installed base of operational solar PV assets has increased, a gap has emerged between expected and realised performance in almost all geographies.

The reasons for the gap are varied, and often specific to the region or country in which the assets are located. In general, the gap reflects unforeseen issues that were not fully accounted for within forecasts of solar generation.  Overall, actual solar asset performance has lagged forecast assumptions. For example, kWh Analytics estimates in its 2025 solar risk report that across all US operating portfolios, solar PV has underperformed weather-adjusted production (P50) estimates by an average of approximately 8.6%¹. Raptor Maps estimates in their 2025 global solar report that in 2024 solar installations globally experienced an average of 5.8% underperformance due specifically to module and other project equipment outages². 

Underperformance relative to forecast assumptions is generally attributable to factors such as poor O&M subcontractor performance, maintenance deficiencies and delays, and grid related issues including curtailment. Whilst irradiance variances have also been observed, forecasting tools for solar are generally more accurate than those used for other technologies such as wind, resulting in an overall lower incidence of this type of underperformance. 

As the price of solar on a per MW basis is now significantly below that of conventional generation technologies, including new nuclear and combined cycle gas, and broadly comparable with other onshore renewables³, there appears to be headroom for these issues to be accommodated within  power prices without compromising the relative cost advantage that solar has over other forms of generation. However, this will increase the overall price required by solar asset owners when compared to current prevailing prices that have been predicated based on historic generation and cost assumptions.  This is most readily achievable for new assets and for existing assets when they are re-contracted during their operating life. For the owners of underperforming and fully contracted assets, persistent underperformance is likely to translate into downward pressure on asset valuation.    

This whitepaper examines the drivers of solar underperformance, highlighting factors that may need to be included in future generation forecasts and operating assumptions, and considers how these dynamics are likely to influence pricing.

1. kWh Analytics, 2025 Solar Risk Assessment Report, Industry Reports - kWh Analytics
2. Raptor Maps, Global Solar Report: 2025 Edition, Global Solar Report 2025
3. US Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2025 – Levelized Cost of New Generation Resources, April 2025, Levelized Costs of New Generation Resources in the Annual Energy Outlook 2025

Disclaimer

This whitepaper has been prepared by Amber Infrastructure Group (“Amber”) and is provided for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Any views expressed herein represent the opinions of Amber and are not intended as a forecast or guarantee of future results. The information contained in this whitepaper has been obtained from sources that Amber believes to be reliable, but Amber does not represent or warrant that information contained herein is accurate or complete, and neither Amber, nor any of their respective officers, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this whitepaper or its contents. The views in this whitepaper are those of Amber and are subject to change, and Amber has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this whitepaper.